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冰川冻土 2012, Vol. 34 Issue (1) :130-138    DOI:
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天山乌鲁木齐河源区1号冰川径流模拟研究
杨淼1, 叶柏生2,3, 彭培好1, 韩添丁2,3, 高红凯2,3, 崔玉环2,3, 王杰2,3, 高明杰2,3
1. 成都理工大学 地球科学学院, 四川 成都 610059;
2. 中国科学院 寒区旱区环境与工程研究所 冰冻圈科学国家重点实验室, 甘肃 兰州 730000;
3. 中国科学院 寒区旱区环境与工程研究所, 甘肃 兰州 730000
A Simulation of Glacial Runoff at Headwaters of the Ürümqi River
YANG Miao1, YE Bai-sheng2,3, PENG Pei-hao1, HAN Tian-ding2,3, GAO Hong-kai2,3, CUI Yu-huan2,3, WANG Jie2,3, GAO Ming-jie2,3
1. College of Earth Sciences, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu Sichuan 610059, China;
2. State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Sciences, Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou Gansu 730000, China;
3. Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou Gansu 730000, China
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摘要 采用HBV-ETH模型, 利用1980-2006年实测水文气象数据对乌鲁木齐河源区1号冰川日径流进行模拟研究. 在考虑度日因子和面积变化的基础上, 模拟了1980-2006年流域的径流深和土壤蒸散发; 依据水量平衡原理, 得到了流域冰川物质平衡和冰川体积变化序列, 同时对比验证了模型的模拟效果. 研究表明: 若将冰川面积视为常数进行模拟, 将会使得模拟径流比实际偏大, 过去26 a平均高估7%左右. 1980-2006年间, 若不考虑面积变化, 累积体积变化被高估3%左右.
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杨淼
叶柏生
彭培好
韩添丁
高红凯
崔玉环
王杰
高明杰
关键词HBV模型   冰川径流   度日因子   冰川面积变化   冰川体积变化     
Abstract: The HBV model was applied to simulate the runoff of the Glacier No. 1 at the Headwaters of the Urumqi River, while the degree-day model was used to calculate ice and snow melt. Using measured hydro-meteorological data during 1980-2006 and five glacier area topographic maps as the model input, the daily runoff of the watershed were simulated. Also, it is emphatically analyzed how the degree-day factor and glacier area fluctuation impact the glacial meltwater runoff. The results show that the adjusted degree-day factor and glacier area are able to make the simulation results greatly improved, which proved the model itself being highly sensitive to the degree-day factor. In a long time scale, simulation of glacier runoff and mass balance should update glacier area annually, as a variable in order to improve the simulation accuracy. Based on the above considerations, the runoff and soil evaporation are simulated from1980 to 2006. Based on the principle of water balance, the mass balance and glacier ice volume sequences in the watershed are calculated, while the simulation results of the model are compared and validated. It is found that glacier area change would affect the runoff simulation for a longer time scale, and should not be ignored. It would make the simulated runoff larger than the actual one if the glacier area is a constant. The average error due to glacier are change is about 7% in the past 26 years for the Glacier No.1 at the headwaters of the Urumqi River.
KeywordsHBV model,   glacier runoff,   degree-day factor,   glacier area change,   glacier volume change     
收稿日期: 2011-07-28;
基金资助:

国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)项目(2007CB411502); 国家自然科学基金项目(41030527); 中国科学院“百人计划”项目资助

作者简介: 杨淼(1985-), 女, 河南南阳人, 2008年毕业于南阳师范学院, 现为成都理工大学硕士研究生, 主要从事寒区水文研究. E-mail:ym1.1@163.com
引用本文:   
杨淼, 叶柏生, 彭培好等 .天山乌鲁木齐河源区1号冰川径流模拟研究[J]  冰川冻土, 2012,V34(1): 130-138
YANG Miao, YE Bai-sheng, PENG Pei-hao etc .A Simulation of Glacial Runoff at Headwaters of the Ürümqi River[J]  JOURNAL OF GLACIOLOGY AND GEOCRYOLOGY, 2012,V34(1): 130-138
链接本文:  
http://210.72.80.159/jweb_bcdt/CN/     或     http://210.72.80.159/jweb_bcdt/CN/Y2012/V34/I1/130
 
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